2010 Southeastern Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The competition level will be through the roof in Nashville this week, as all 12 SEC teams will compete in the 51st annual conference tournament. On the line is an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and the majority of the teams in the league are well aware that their hopes of earning a ticket to the "Big Dance" depend solely on winning this event.

Kentucky has won more SEC Tournament titles than all of the other conference members combined, and the Wildcats enter this year's field as the top seed from the East Division. The Wildcats will attempt to capture their first crown since 2004, but they figure to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of their finish in this event. The East Division is considerably stronger than the West, as it can be argued that the best four teams in the SEC all come from the East. Vanderbilt (E-2), Tennessee (E-3) and Florida (E-4) are all capable of knocking off Kentucky and winning this tournament. Vanderbilt and Tennessee have the necessary records to reach the NCAA Tournament without winning this league tourney. In regard to the West, even top-seeded Mississippi State has a shaky resume' and needs to cut down the nets in Nashville. The lone team in the field that has never won the SEC Tournament is South Carolina. The first round of this event begins on Thursday, as the third through sixth seeds in both divisions will be in action. The top two seeds in both divisions will open play on Friday, March 12th, in the quarterfinal round, and after semifinal action on Saturday, the championship game will be played on "Selection Sunday".

The first of four first-round games pits the Alabama Crimson Tide (W-4) against the South Carolina Gamecocks (E-5). Alabama has won this tournament six times, the second most in the league, but the last crown was captured way back in 1991. Still, the Tide is 57-43 in this event. South Carolina, as mentioned, is still in search of its first title, and the Gamecocks are 16-18 in SEC Tournament affairs. Alabama beat South Carolina by nine points in the only regular-season meeting between the teams. The Crimson Tide depend heavily on their defense to win games, as they are second in the conference in scoring defense (64.6 ppg). Mikhail Torrance (15.4 ppg, 5.3 apg) and JaMychal Green (14.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg) are clearly the two best players on the roster for 'Bama. As for South Carolina, it possess the league's leading scorer in Devan Downey (22.6 ppg), and the senior is also handing out 3.5 apg. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks are last in the league in free-throw percentage, assists and rebounding margin.

Tennessee (E-3) and LSU (W-6) are slated to do battle on Thursday afternoon in what may be the most lopsided matchup of the first round. The Vols have won the SEC Tournament four times, but it has been 31 years since their last title. Last season, Tennessee reached the championship game, only to fall to Mississippi State in a 64-61 final. As for LSU, it captured its lone SEC crown back in 1980, so it can certainly relate to Tennessee's long wait for a championship. The Vols and Tigers played just once during the regular season, and Tennessee escaped Baton Rouge with a five-point win. The Vols own the second-best scoring margin in the SEC (+9.8 ppg), surprising considering the fact that they don't possess a single player ranked in the top 20 in the league in scoring. Tennessee is the top team in the conference when it comes to defending the three-point shot. As for LSU, it finished 2-14 versus SEC opponents during the regular season, but the team did close out the campaign with a victory and may enter this tournament with some confidence. Unfortunately, the Tigers completely lack depth and are the lowest-scoring team in the SEC (61.9 ppg) despite boasting two of the league's top 13 scorers, including Tasmin Mitchell (17.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg).

The Florida Gators (E-4), will do battle with Auburn (W-5) in the first round. A 20-win season used to assure teams from major conferences a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but teams are playing more games than ever, so Florida needs to play well in this event to punch its ticket to the "Big Dance". The Gators own a 32-41 all-time record in this event, but they captured three straight titles from 2005 through 2007, so the majority of their success has been recent. As for Auburn, it has struggled in the SEC Tournament, posting a 27-46 record, and the program's lone championship came back in 1985. The Gators beat the Tigers by eight points in the only meeting between the teams during the regular season. The fact that Florida is able to field a starting lineup with five double-digit scorers is impressive. The Gators are last in the league in blocked shots but tops in assist/turnover ratio. Auburn is the worst defensive team in the SEC, allowing 74.0 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting by opponents. The Tigers possess the sixth and seventh ranked scorers in the league in DeWayne Reed (16.1 ppg) and Tay Waller (15.9 ppg).

Rounding out the pairings in the first round will be the Arkansas Razorbacks (W-3) and the Georgia Bulldogs (E-6). Arkansas is 20-17 all-time in this event and won its lone title back in 2000. As for Georgia, it has two championships to its credit, the most recent of which was earned in 2008. The Razorbacks beat the Bulldogs by four points on the road in the only regular-season meeting between the clubs. Arkansas is ranked 11th out of 12 SEC teams in scoring defense, and the team is last in three-point percentage defense. Rotnei Clarke leads the Razorbacks with 15.5 ppg, and Marshawn Powell is close behind with 15.1 ppg. Georgia's top performer is Trey Thompkins (17.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who ranks second in the SEC in scoring and fourth in rebounding. His Bulldogs are 11th in scoring margin among conference teams, however, and they are last in turnover margin.

The winner of the South Carolina/Alabama matchup will advance to the quarterfinal round to face Kentucky. The Wildcats have won this event 25 times and own a 111-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky leads the conference in many statistical categories, including scoring offense (79.9 ppg), scoring margin (+14.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.478), field goal percentage defense (.382), rebounding margin (+9.1 rpg) and assists (14.9 apg). Freshman sensation John Wall is averaging 17.0 ppg to go along with a league-best 6.2 apg, and fellow rookie star DeMarcus Cousins checks in with 15.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Don't forget about Patrick Patterson and his 15.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg.

The second quarterfinal game to be played on Friday pits the Ole Miss Rebels (W-2) against either LSU or Tennessee. Ole Miss won its only SEC championship in 1981, and the team's 23-46 conference record is far from impressive. Rebels' standout guard Chris Warren ranks third in the SEC in scoring with 17.2 ppg and ninth in assists (3.4 apg). Ole Miss is second in the league in scoring with 78.4 ppg, and the team shoots the ball efficiently from three- point range. The Rebels are second in assist/turnover ratio and have the talent in place to make a run in this event.

Mississippi State (W-1) awaits the winner of the Auburn/Florida matchup, and that quarterfinal matchup figures to be competitive regardless of the pairing. MSU is the defending champion of this event as mentioned, and the program has three titles to its credit. Still, its 25-46 record at this event all-time is poor. The man to watch for the Bulldogs is star forward/center Jarvis Varnado, who recently became the NCAA's all-time leader in blocked shots. In addition to his 4.8 rejections per outing, Varnado also paces the conference in rebounding (10.6 ppg) and is scoring 13.5 ppg as well. Mississippi State is the best defensive team in the league in regard to scoring defense (64.4 ppg), and the club is limiting opponents to 38.4 percent shooting from the field. Dee Bost is a tremendous distributor at point guard who ranks second in the SEC in assists (5.4 apg).

The Vanderbilt Commodores (W-2) will play either Georgia or Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Vandy's lone SEC Tournament title was earned way back in 1951, by far the longest drought of any of the teams that have won the crown. The Commodores are 29-47 in the event, but this year's team is one of the best in recent memory. Vanderbilt is the best free-throw shooting team in the conference, and that asset could certainly prove critical in close tournament games. While the Commodores do lack the type of player capable of taking a game over at the offensive end, there are three double-digit scorers in the fold. Jermaine Beal (14.7 ppg), A.J. Ogilvy (13.9 ppg) and Jeffery Taylor (13.9 ppg) provide plenty of balance to the lineup.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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