2011-12 Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

Basketball Betting Lines

12/22/2011 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There will be a new philosophy in the Twin Cities this season for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but expectations are not so high.

Having amassed 32 wins over the past two seasons under Kurt Rambis, the powers that be decided that the former bespectacled player's time was up as a bench boss. Rambis was axed over the summer before the NBA's lockout even grew legs and the Timberwolves went 17-65 in 2010-11.

Rambis went 15-67 in 2009-10 and will be succeeded by veteran NBA coach Rick Adelman, who joined the fray in September. The 65-year-old Adelman has a 945-616 career record during head coaching stints in Portland, Sacramento, Golden State and Houston. He left the Rockets this past April.

"After a thorough search and interview process, we're pleased to be bringing a coach of Rick Adelman's stature on board to coach the Minnesota Timberwolves," said David Kahn, Timberwolves president of basketball operations. "Rick has proven time and again that he is one of the top coaches in basketball -- one of the top coaches in the history of our sport. We are excited to have him as the leader of our young and talented team."

Adelman led Portland to a pair of NBA Finals appearances (1990, '92) and has guided his clubs to the playoffs 16 times. That type of success won't be reached any time soon in Minnesota, but at least Adelman has a solid nucleus to work with. Led by All-Star and rebounding machine Kevin Love, the Wolves are looking to vastly improve on what has been two lousy seasons. Love led the team in both points (20.2) and rebounds (15.2) last season and will have Ricky Rubio dishing him passes in the upcoming campaign.

Rubio was selected by the Timberwolves with the fifth overall pick of the 2009 draft, but at age 18 decided to remain at home to play for Regal Barcelona. The Spanish star and skilled point guard averaged 4.8 points and 4.1 assists per game this season for Barcelona, which claimed the Spanish league title. After the 2009 draft, Minnesota had an agreement in place with Rubio's former team, DKV Joventut, on a buyout package that would have enabled him to play for the Wolves. However, Rubio decided to stay home and play for Barcelona, which also made an offer to buy out the Joventut contract.

Minnesota added a few new faces in guard J.J. Barea, veteran swingman Bonzi Wells and rookie guard Malcolm Lee. Barea played in 81 games for Dallas last season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.9 assists. He also averaged 8.9 points and 3.4 assists in 21 playoff games for the World Champion Mavericks.

"We are excited to add J.J. Barea to our team," said David Kahn, Timberwolves president of basketball operations. "His experience, leadership capabilities and all-around play should help us immensely this coming season and beyond."

Wells last played in the NBA during the 2007-08 season, when he split the year with Houston and New Orleans. The Timberwolves are counting on big things from this year's draft pick, talented forward Derrick Williams out of Arizona.

2010-11 Results: 17-65, fifth in Northwest, Missed playoffs.

ADDITIONS: F Derrick Williams, G Ricky Rubio, G J.J. Barea, C Brad Miller, G Bonzi Wells.

PROJECTED STARTING FIVE:

PG- Luke Ridnour SG- Wes Johnson SF- Michael Beasley PF- Kevin Love C- Darko Milicic

KEY RESERVES: PG Ricky Rubio; SG Wayne Ellington; PF Derrick Williams; C Brad Miller; G/F Martell Webster; G Jose Barea; F Bonzi Wells

FRONTCOURT: Love is one of the top forwards in the game and there's no telling how much more he can improve. With a rebounding prowess the likes of which Bill Russell, Charles Barkley and Hakeem Olajuwon would blush at, Minnesota's offense runs through Love. Love, the reigning Most Improved Player, played in 73 contests a year ago and came in thinner this season. The weight loss can only help the big man, especially his knees, and will give the Wolves added athleticism inside. Beasley plays with an attitude down low and posted 19.2 points and 5.6 boards in 73 games a year ago. When Beasley's on his game and not getting caught up in social media he is one of a few who can be stopped. Darko Milicic hasn't lived up to his billing as a top draft pick and is expected to start at center. He averaged 8.8 points and 5.2 rebounds in 69 games last year.

BACKCOURT: Rubio is an instant Rookie of the Year candidate and may push Luke Ridnour out of the starting point guard spot. Rubio is as talented as they come and the fans have been waiting patiently to see what he can do at the NBA level. In his two seasons with Barcelona, Rubio averaged 5.9 points and 4.4 assists in 65 games. He also averaged 7.7 points and 3.6 assists in four seasons with DKV Joventut. Ridnour led the Timberwolves with 5.4 assists per game in 2010-11 and scored 11.8 ppg. Wes Johnson enjoyed a strong rookie season a year ago, averaging 9.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.9 assists. The former Syracuse standout understands how to get his teammates involved and should see even more time under Adelman this season since the Wolves are lacking in talented shooting guards.

BENCH: The addition of Brad Miller could mean the end of Milicic starting at center, but then again Adelman may want to keep some talent coming off of the bench. Minnesota acquired Miller from Houston in a deal that sent point guard Jonny Flynn to Space City. Miller was made expendable partly because the Rockets drafted Marcus Morris at No. 14. Miller averaged just 6.4 points in 60 games last season while battling knee and ankle injuries. He underwent microfracture knee surgery after the season. In June, the Wolves exercised the fourth-year option on guard Wayne Ellington, and the third-year options on forwards Wes Johnson and Lazar Hayward, who was then dealt to Oklahoma City. Rookie Derrick Williams and Barea could also work their way into the starting lineup. If Williams cracks the lineup, expect Beasley to hit the pine. It's unknown how much Wells can contribute after being out of action so long.

COACHING: The Timberwolves have a legitimate coach now that Adelman is in the fold, but it will still take some time for this team to come together. The 65- year-old Adelman has a 945-616 career record during head coaching stints in Portland, Sacramento, Golden State and Houston. He left the Rockets this past April. Adelman led Portland to a pair of NBA Finals appearances (1990, '92) and has guided his clubs to the playoffs 16 times. His no nonsense approach and having Love at his disposal should boost morale. Adelman's former big man Chris Webber feels Adelman will have a great impact on the team with the way he teaches the game. Being aware of the basics is key, according to Webber.

OUTLOOK: Flip Saunders was the last successful coach the Timberwolves had and when he departed the wins did as well. Now it's up to Adelman's strict policy to turn things around and he'll have a few players to help along the way. It won't be easy at first and it may take a couple of seasons to adjust, but Minnesota is headed in the right direction. Rubio is finally in the NBA and will go up against a tough crop of guards ready to stick it to the Spanish star, who has gained so much hype without dribbling a ball at this level. The Wolves will not be contenders for some time and the playoffs are still far- fetched. Expect Adelman and Company to erase those sentiments in two years.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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