Belmont Stakes prospect preps in turf race

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/20/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Madrid, a Belmont Stakes candidate, faded down the stretch Thursday at Belmont Park in his first race in more than a month. The three-year-old colt was using the optional claiming event as a prep for the final leg in the Triple Crown.

Trained by Tim Ice, New Madrid and jockey John Velazquez took the lead coming out of the gate in the 1 1/8-mile turf contest. The colt ws making his first start since finishing sixth to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby. This was just his fifth career start.

New Madrid, owned by Shortleaf Stable, set the pace up the backstretch with Syo Defenceman to the inside in second. Spanish Art, the 2-1 favorite, was racing off the pace in sixth while 3-1 second choice Elusive Beat was running last.

Around the turn for home Kindergarden Kid made a sweeping move and took the lead heading into the stretch. New Madrid, 6-1 on the tote board, and Syo Defenceman both faded down the stretch.

Kindergarden Kid, ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, held off a late running Cherokee Speed to win the grass race by three-quarters of a length. Spanish Art finished third followed by Elusive Beat, New Madrid, Wild Entry and Syo Defenceman.

Sent off at 7-1, Kindergarden Kid covered the 1 1/8-miles in 1:49.74 on a firm turf course.

In other Belmont Stakes news, Stay Put had his final Churchill Downs work in preparation for the 1 1/2-mile Test of Champions on Saturday, June 5. The chestnut colt worked six furlongs in 1:14 with jockey Jamie Theriot. The three-year-old is owned by Bertram, Richard and Elaine Klein, and trained by Steve Margolis.

"It was very good. Jamie said he finished well and I got him galloping out in 1:28 and a mile in 1:42," Margolis said. "He will ship to Belmont next Thursday, train Friday and then work a half-mile Saturday or Sunday. We always thought he had talent. Jamie says he never seems to get tired and his Derby Day race was impressive in the way he did it."

Stay Put won an allowance race at Churchill Downs that began the May 1 program. The colt was fifth in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds.

Preakness runner-up First Dude, trained by Dale Romans, is scheduled to leave Louisville on Friday for a possible start in the Belmont Stakes. Owned by Donald Dizney, First Dude was 23-1 in the Preakness after finishing fifth in the Florida Derby to Ice Box and third to Stately Victor in the Blue Grass Stakes.

A pair of Belmont Stakes probables have been withdrawn from consideration. Dublin and Setsuko will not be entered in the race.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Dublin was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. His defection means that no horse will have started in all three Triple Crown races this year.

Setsuko, Santa Anita Derby runner-up, has inflammation in his ankles and will remain in California. Trained by Richard Mandella, the colt was second in the Sham Stakes in March, but did not have enough graded stakes earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby. On April 30 he was fourth in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.