George Steinbrenner's best chance in Kentucky Derby

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tuesday the sports world lost one of its most recognizable figures when a heart attack claimed the life of George Steinbrenner. The owner of the New York Yankees passed away at the age of 80.

While best known as the owner of the Bronx Bombers, the Ohio-native was very much involved in thoroughbred racing. He raced under the name of Kinsman Stable and bred horses at Kinsman Farm in central Florida.

"The thoroughbred racing world joins the rest of the sporting community in mourning the death of George Steinbrenner," said Alex Waldrop, President and CEO of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. "He was a devoted owner and breeder and philanthropist for more than 40 years, and his Kinsman Farm near Ocala, FL, produced numerous stakes winners. His many contributions to our sport are greatly appreciated, and he will be sorely missed."

Steinbrenner never won a Triple Crown race, though he had serious contenders for the Run for the Roses. In 2005 he even had the post-time favorite for the 1 1/4-mile race at Churchill Downs.

Bellamy Road, a colt purchased by Steinbrenner, had won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct prior to starting in the Kentucky Derby. The three-year-old was made the 5-2 favorite for the race over Arkansas Derby champ Afleet Alex, Santa Anita Derby winner Buzzards Bay and Blue Grass Stakes champ Bandini.

Ridden by Javier Castellano, Bellamy Road sat third at the start behind pacesetters Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild. Coming off the final turn, Steinbrenner's colt was second, only a head in back of stablemate High Fly.

But Bellamy Road picked the wrong year to challenge for the lead in the Kentucky Derby. The fast pace (the first six furlongs went in 1:09 2/5) took its toll on the front-runners and a pair of longshots Giacomo (50-1) and Closing Argument (71-1) came charging down the stretch to finish first and second, respectively.

Steinbrenner's horse couldn't keep up and faded to seventh in the 20-horse field. Bellamy Road was one of six Kentucky Derby starters that Mr. Steinbrenner had.

Bellamy Road was not entered in the remaining two Triple Crown races, but he came back to finish second to Flower Alley in the Travers as the 2-1 second choice.

In his career Bellamy Road won four of seven starts with one second-place finish and banked $811,400.

"The two best horses I ever trained,' said Nick Zito, "were Unbridled's Song and Bellamy Road."

Along with his involvement with Major League Baseball and thoroughbred racing, Steinbrenner was a benefactor of the Penn Relays track and field carnival. His father, running for MIT, was the 1927 high hurdles champion at the Franklin Field event. George was a hurdler at Williams College and the Lockbourne Air Base.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.