Let the race to the Sprint Cup Chase begin

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/22/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June 27. Race: Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Site: New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Track: 1.058-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 301. Miles: 318.458. 2009 winner: Joey Logano. Television: TNT. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

So much for his so-called season slump. Jimmie Johnson's recent downslide came to an end last Sunday at the Infineon Raceway road course in Northern California. The four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion finally notched his first road course win in 17 attempts.

Johnson began the season by winning three of the first five races, but within the past two months, he had fallen as far back as seventh in points after finishing 31st at Talladega, 36th at Darlington and 37th at Charlotte. Since Charlotte, Johnson has finished no worse than sixth, including a win at Sonoma, which has moved him up to second in the standings.

Denny Hamlin leads the series with five victories so far, while Johnson is next in line with four.

"At the beginning of the year, we were clicking them off," Johnson said. "Right now, Denny has been clicking them off. All that said, it's a long time until September."

The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race at Richmond will enter the championship Chase in the first seed. All 12 drivers who qualify for the playoffs -- the last 10 events of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the 26-event regular season.

This weekend's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire kicks off the "Race to the Chase," a 10-race stretch that precedes the Sprint Cup playoffs. So the scramble is on for many drivers to the secure a top-12 spot before the series returns to New Hampshire for the first Chase race on September 19.

Carl Edwards currently holds the coveted 12th position, but NASCAR fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. lurks behind in the 13th spot, as he trails Edwards by 57 points. Earnhardt Jr. has finished seventh and 11th in the last two races.

Edwards dropped two positions in points after a 29th-place run at Sonoma.

"We're trying to just lock ourselves into the Chase," Edwards said. "If we were farther up in points, we wouldn't be thinking about that, but the farther back you are, the more you think about it, and the earlier you think about it."

Heading into New Hampshire, 240 points separate ninth-place Greg Biffle from 20th-place Juan Pablo Montoya.

Biffle has performed well at the flat one-mile track in the past, with a victory here in September 2008. He finished ninth and 18th last year at New Hampshire.

"I think it's a good race track, and we're capable of finishing in the top-10 there or repeating our win from a few years ago," Biffle said. "That definitely could be in the cards."

Kevin Harvick enters New Hampshire with a 140-point lead over Johnson. Harvick has been consistent so far this season, recording 11 top-10 finishes in the first 16 races.

"We're fortunate to be where we are at in the points right now," Harvick said. "We're able to race hard every lap and really not have to worry about what's going on with the points."

Harvick is looking to improve at New Hampshire this time around. He finished 32nd and 34th here last year.

Joey Logano is the defending race winner. One year ago, Logano, in his rookie season, benefited from crew chief Greg Zipadelli's gutsy late-race pit strategy for his first Sprint Cup win in the rain-shortened race at New Hampshire.

Logano, who hails from Middletown, CT, overcame a one-lap deficit after cutting his left-rear tire in the late-stages of the race. He was the only driver who had yet to pit during the final round of green flag stops. Ryan Newman gave up the lead when he ran out of fuel and coasted into in the pits. That allowed Logano to take the top spot for the first time. He then conserved enough fuel before rain fell on the track.

NASCAR displayed the red flag 28 laps short of the 301-lap scheduled distance, with the race being called shortly after. Logano's first win came in his 20th start.

"It's a big deal for me to go back there," Logano said. "It's basically my home racetrack. I grew up a couple of hours away from there, well, about three hours...It was a cool place to get your first win."

Logano is currently 17th in points.

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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