Rams-Vikings Tilt Could Have Playoff Implications

Football Betting Lines

12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams still have a shot at a playoff berth, and will put their chances on the line Sunday when they pay a visit to the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome.

The Rams have won two in a row, and defeated the Washington Redskins, 37-31, in overtime last Sunday. But they need a lot of help from other clubs this week in order to reach the playoffs for the sixth time in the last eight seasons. Head coach Scott Linehan's squad is one of five teams in the NFC with a 7-8 record and still in the hunt for the final Wild Card berth as Week 17 begins.

St. Louis must defeat Tampa Bay and have the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all lose or tie to reach the postseason.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is out of the playoffs for the second straight year, and first-year head coach Brad Childress will have some work to do this offseason. Childress has been heavily criticized during the team's current 2-7 stretch, with complaints ranging from his offensive philosophy to his handling of veteran players.

Most recent, Childress has been question for his decision to bench quarterback Brad Johnson in favor of youngster Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson played poorly in last Thursday's 9-7 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

That defeat clinched Minnesota's first losing season since 2002.

SERIES HISTORY

Minnesota has a 17-13-2 advantage in its all-time series against St. Louis, including a 27-13 home victory in the most recent meeting, in Week 14 of last season. The Rams won the previous two meetings, in 2000 and 2003, in the Gateway City. The Rams are 0-3 in regular season games played in the Twin Cities since last winning there in 1978.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams met in the playoffs seven times between 1969 and 1999. Minnesota has a 5-2 edge in the postseason series, beating the then-Los Angeles Rams for the NFC Championship in 1974 and 1976, and also taking playoff victories in 1969, 1977, and 1988. The Rams defeated Minnesota in NFC Divisional Playoff contests in 1978 and 1999.

The Rams' Linehan and Vikings' Childress will be meeting one another, as well as each other's respective franchise, for the first time.

RAMS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE

Pro Bowl-bound quarterback Marc Bulger surpassed the 4,000-yard passing mark for the first time in his career in last week's win over Washington. Bulger (4,053 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs), who also established a personal single-season best for touchdown passes, scorched the Redskins for 388 yards and four TDs without an interception. The West Virginia product has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark in three of the last four weeks, and has seven TD passes and one pick over the last three. He leads the leagues fourth-best passing attack thanks in large part to star receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Holt (84 catches 1,098 yards, 10 TDs), who is also headed to the Pro Bowl, ranks third in the NFC in yards and has seven straight 1,000-yard seasons. His 9,797 yards since 2000 are the most in the NFL. Bruce (70 catches, 1,032 yards, 3 TDs) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the eighth time in his career last Sunday against the Redskins, hauling in nine passes for a season-high 148 yards and a touchdown. Bruce now has 13,310 receiving yards, and passed Andre Reed (13,198) for seventh on the all-time list. Bulger, Holt and Bruce should have strong days against the Minnesota defense, which is the worst in the NFL against the pass, allowing 238.0 yards a game. Bulger was sacked just once last week, but has been dropped 49 times this season.

Minnesota will try to put Bulger on his back a few times this week, with defensive ends Kenechi Udeze (25 tackles) and Darrion Scott (43 tackles, 5 1/2 sacks) attempting to apply pressure off the edges. The line did not register a sack against Brett Favre last week. The Vikings' secondary received some bad news when starting cornerback and rookie Cedric Griffin (41 tackles, 2 INTs) was placed on injured reserve with a neck/shoulder injury. Also, cornerback Fred Smoot (61 tackles, INT) was placed on the reserve/non-football injury list after suffering a fractured jaw in an automobile accident over the weekend. Childress will opt to put either Charles Gordon or Ronyell Whitaker in the starting lineup at right cornerback. Gordon (7 tackles) and/or Whitaker (23 tackles) will have to be helped by safeties Dwight Smith (74 tackles, sack, 4 INTs) and Darren Sharper (61 tackles, sack, 4 INTs) in the last line of defense. Also, left cornerback Antoine Winfield (92 tackles, 4 INTs) needs one more interception to set a career high in that category. Sharper owns one pick, three forced fumbles and fumble recovery in his past three meetings against St. Louis.

Steven Jackson was named the Rams' MVP of the 2006 season earlier this week, and deservedly so. Jackson (1,386 yards, 10 TDs) further emerged from the shadows of Marshall Faulk in last week's win over Washington, recording 252 total yards (150 rush, 102 receive) and two TDs including a 21-yard scoring run in overtime to keep the Rams' slim playoff chances alive. Jackson leads the NFC in yards from scrimmage, and has already established a franchise record for receptions by a running back in one season with 88. Jackson has a touchdown run in three straight games (4 total), and has reached the century mark in each of the last two contests. The Vikings are ranked No. 1 in the NFL defending the rush, so Jackson will have to prove that his recent statistics don't lie.

Two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kevin Williams (33 tackles, 5 sacks) has more incentive to play hard this week, after signing a contract extension a few days before Christmas. Williams, who has a career-high nine tackles for loss and seven passes defensed this season, is a big reason why Minnesota is ranked at the top of the league at defending the run. The Vikings have ended the season ranked first in the NFL against the run twice in team history, in 1975 and 1994. Pat Williams (42 tackles, sack) plays opposite of his namesake to give the Vikings bulk in the middle. Jackson will have to work extra hard to penetrate the Minnesota front four, and if he does, linebackers E.J. Henderson (105 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INTs), Napoleon Harris (51 tackles, 2 1/2 sacks, 3 INTs), and Ben Leber (43 tackles, 3 sacks, INT) will have to be ready. The trio had an easy time with Green Bay last week and held the Packers to 46 total yards rushing.

VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE

Tarvaris Jackson (262 yards, TD, 2 INTs) will make his second start on Sunday, and what qualifies as his final meaningful audition for No. 1 duties heading into 2006. Jackson, who is more elusive than benched veteran Brad Johnson, was 10-of-20 for just 50 yards with an interception in Green Bay. The offense has struggled for most of the season, and the recent release of wide receiver Marcus Robinson (29 catches, 381 yards, 4 TDs) opened some eyes in the locker room. Travis Taylor, Troy Williamson, Bethel Johnson and Billy McMullen will be the Minnesota receivers available for Sunday's game. Taylor (52 catches, 597 yards, 2 TDs) leads the team in yards, while Williamson (37 catches, 455 yards), McMullen (19 catches, 260 yards, 2 TDs) and Johnson (8 catches, 137 yards) serve as secondary choices for the NFL's 19th-ranked passing attack. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins (45 catches, 381 yards, TD) needs just five receptions for a third straight season with 50 or more catches. The wideouts won't be able to make plays if the offensive line has trouble protecting Jackson in the pocket. Jackson was sacked three times against the Packers, and four times in three total appearances this season.

Rams defensive end Leonard Little (55 tackles, 12 sacks) is having another strong season in the Gateway City. Little is near the top of the NFL list in sacks, and has come on strong with seven over the past eight weeks. He wasn't able to get to Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell, however. DE Victor Adeyanju (34 tackles, sack) is listed as probable after missing the last five weeks with a forearm injury. The Rams secondary shut down Washington's trio of receivers on Sunday, and will look to do the same against the Vikings' corps. Cornerbacks Fakhir Brown (60 tackles, sack, 3 INTs), Tye Hill (46 tackles, 3 INTs), and safety O.J. Atogwe (68 tackles, sack, 3 INTs) are tied for the team lead in picks. The rookie Hill took over the starting job when Travis Fisher was lost for the season because of an arm injury, and has emerged as the team's most promising corner. Hill earned the Carroll Rosenbloom Award as the Rams' rookie of the year earlier this week. The Rams are eighth in the NFL against the pass this season.

Vikings running back Chester Taylor (1,185 yards, TD) is having a career season in Minnesota, and needs 115 yards to join former Viking Robert Smith as the only players in franchise history to rush for 1,300 yards in a season. Taylor, who had 49 yards on 15 touches against Green Bay and failed to score a touchdown for the third straight game, is five carries shy of setting a team record set by Smith (295) in 2000. Taylor should have a better week against the Rams, who are 31st against the rush this season, allowing 149.7 yards a game. Backup running backs Mewelde Moore (121 yards) and Artose Pinner (183 yards, 3 TDs) will take over for Taylor when he needs a blow. The Vikings are 16th in the NFL in rushing.

Rams tackles Jimmy Kennedy (36 tackles), La'Roi Glover (36 tackles, 5 1/2 sacks) and Jason Fisk (20 tackles) provide the bulk up front. Glover owns four sacks in his last six games, but was part of a St. Louis group that had trouble stopping Redskins running back Ladell Betts, who notched 129 yards and two TDs last week. St. Louis has allowed a pair of 100-yard rushers in the past four weeks. Behind the front four are linebackers Will Witherspoon (105 tackles, 2 sacks), Dexter Coakley (25 tackles, 2 INTs) and Brandon Chillar (55 tackles, 2 sacks). Witherspoon, who is probable with a knee injury, leads the team in tackles, and posted five versus Washington.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Though he will be facing a Minnesota team for which he once served as an assistant, Linehan is in unfamiliar territory with his current team perhaps on the brink of the playoffs. Luckily, Linehan has Steven Jackson in the backfield and Bulger, Holt, and Bruce in the passing game, all players who can help guide his team through a potentially big game. St. Louis certainly has the advantage because of its multi-headed monster on offense, and Vikings rookie Tarvaris Jackson, though he should play better than he did in Green Bay, is going to have trouble matching the prolific Rams attack score-for- score.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Rams 31, Vikings 21

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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