Sweden needs a little luck to get past North Korea

Soccer Betting Lines

09/17/2007 - Tiajin, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweden's hoping to change its luck against North Korea on Tuesday.

The third-ranked Swedes settled for a 1-1 tie in their World Cup opener on a late equalizer by Nigeria, then lost to the United States 2-0.

To avoid failing to make the quarterfinals for the first time in its history, Sweden has to beat North Korea by at least three goals.

"Luck's not been on our side and we've only got one point in the bag. But we'll do everything in our power to get back on track and try and win our third group match," Sweden coach Thomas Dennerby told FIFA's website.

A change in luck may help the Swedes, who have struggled finishing scoring chances despite numerous opportunities in both games, but it's going to take more than that against North Korea.

North Korea, ranked fifth, tied the United States in its opener 2-2 and then posted a 2-0 win over Nigeria. North Korea is tied with the United States for first place in Group B, and needs a tie or win to secure a spot in the next round.

"Our next game against Sweden will be very tough, but we're ready to take them on," North Korea coach Kim Kwang Min told FIFA's website. "We haven't sealed qualification yet so we're obliged to play to win, there's no other way."

Sweden has no other option, either. But if it's going to advance, Victoria Svensson, Hanna Ljungberg and Lotta Schelin have to start scoring.

The trio are three of the best scorers in the tournament, with Svensson and Ljungberg more experienced on the international level.

Ljungberg has 71 career goals and Svensson - who scored the team's lone goal in a tie with Nigeria - has 59.

With the way Sweden's struggled offensively in its first two games, the large winning margin seems unlikely. But the Swedes displayed just how dangerous the offense can be in European qualifying, scoring 32 goals in eight games - an average of four per contest.

Ljungberg had 10 goals in qualifying, Schelin had six and Svensson and Therese Lundin, a midfielder, each had four.

As bad as Sweden's played in its first two games, it would still be a threat to win the tournament if it can advance.

"If we can do that," Dennerby said, "then anything is possible."

North Korea won't make it easy on the 2003 runners-up, though. The Asian team looked better than the Americans for long stretches, and had no real trouble with Nigeria.

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The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

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The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

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